Its awfully hard to predict things. That’s what we’ve re-learned in the past month as events have unfolded in Tunisia and Egypt. At the end of 2010, not enough people were talking about bread and unemployment protests in Tunisia and Algeria. And when the topic of Egypt came up, most commentators were still debating whether Hosni Mubarak would run for yet another term as president, or whether he would usher his son Gamal into the position.
No one would have predicted that Ben Ali would flee Tunisia, and that analysts would be describing Mubarak teetering on the edge of exile by January’s end.
No one would last long at a democracy promotion institute if they pinned job satisfaction on fast-paced and high-level democratic accomplishments. Those of us working at CIPE and similar organizations had no illusions that democratic transitions laid in wait at a predestined point in Tunisia, Egypt, or any other country’s trajectory.
In the period that most people view as the uncomfortable interim – when a democratic transition seems hopeful or at least possible, but not necessarily imminent – we analyze how much space is allowed for reform-minded citizens in authoritarian-led countries; we cultivate partnerships with such individuals and non-governmental organizations; and we partner with local organizations to translate information, conduct training programs, hold conferences, and support advocacy campaigns to further the work of democratic and economic reform proponents.
In other words, a large chunk of our job is ensuring that at such moments of transition, we have prepared local partners to step into expanded roles when the dust settles down.
Local partners should have exerted efforts to educate citizens on the details of what “democracy” and a “market economy” really mean in practice.
Local partners should be able to quickly capitalize on new or strengthened freedoms of association, assembly, and speech, as space broadens for civil society work.
Local partners should be well-situated to suggest political and economic reforms, based in social realities, that a transitional government can pursue.
Such work runs parallel to other strains of democratic support. Just as CIPE, NDI, IRI, the Solidarity Center and other organizations work with local partners to take advantage of shifting regimes, the US government is gauging how it may benefit from relationships with those outside of longstanding administrations, and with political figures across the opposition spectrum.
Now is the time that democracy promotion institutes can shine, but never rest on laurels. At such points in our work, evaluation and future planning are necessary – Have we prepared partners for success at such a crucial juncture? And how can we and our partners capitalize on new environments in the Middle East to support the development of democracies that can deliver for citizens?
Published Date: February 01, 2011