Ever since Moldovan voters surprised many by voting out Europe’s only Communist government after eight years in power, headlines have focused on the former Soviet republic’s prospects of distancing itself from Russian influence and orienting itself towards “the West.” While geopolitics will certainly play an important role in Moldova’s future, its most pressing immediate policy concerns are domestic. Moldova’s economy has shrunk by 7 percent in the first half of 2009, while its budget deficit has quadrupled. The viability of the newly elected pro-reform coalition will depend not on its position on long-term goals such as membership in the EU or NATO, but on whether or not it succeeds in building sustainable improvements to Moldova’s weak economic infrastructure and reversing the plaguing issues of corruption and government mismanagement.
Last week Moldovans got their first impressions of what the incoming government has planned when Vlad Filat, the head of the reformist Liberal Democratic Party and presumably the country’s next Prime Minister, spoke at a meeting of business and union leaders in Chisinau, and, perhaps more importantly, asked attendees for their recommendations. Participants in the meeting made several proposals aimed at attracting international investment and stemming the tide of young Moldovans leaving the country for better prospects elsewhere. These included a focus on hiring youth, tax breaks for capital generating industry, an increase in the minimum wage, and combating corruption. Filat vowed to consider the proposals and called for further citizen participation, which, if sincere, would stand in stark contrast to the Communists’ reliance on government-driven politics and stifling of dissent.
While a willingness to listen to constituents would represent a welcome change of tone in Moldova, Filat has also demonstrated his willingness to take potentially unpopular positions in order to guarantee economic stability. Outgoing President Vladimir Voronin last week offered Filat the support of the Communists, still the largest single party in Parliament, if the new government would continue to implement the generous social policies that were the hallmark of Communist rule. Accepting would have smoothed the transition considerably, and made it easier for Parliament to elect a President, for which the ruling coalition will need the support of at least part of the Communist Party under the assembly’s current composition. Filat, however, maintained that austerity measures aimed at securing an IMF loan were paramount to the country’s economic recovery.
Needless to say, the actions of the new government will be worth watching closely over the coming months. Of particular interest will be whether Filat’s promises of encouraging greater citizen participation in government are genuine or merely lip service aimed at attracting accolades from the West. While there is cause for hope, stalled-out reform processes in countries such as Georgia demonstrate that cautious optimism is a wiser attitude than unbridled enthusiasm when a pro-reform government takes power. It will also be interesting to see whether the coalition can survive the formidable test of governing, which has a habit of breaking alliances forged in opposition, as Voronin has cynically predicted would occur in Moldova.
Published Date: September 25, 2009