On March 18, 2009 the people of Azerbaijan will vote in a referendum to remove the two-term limit to the country’s presidency. Such a change will enable the incumbent 47 year-old President Ilham Aliyev to remain in power for life. Is this the end to the pursuit of democracy in this oil-rich state?
The parliament voted almost unanimously (100 to 7) on changing the constitution immediately after Aliyev was re-elected to his second 5 year-term last October. He succeeded his father, a former Soviet-era communist party official who served as president from 1993 till his death in 2003. The motion for constitutional amendment was unexpected and passed through the parliament without public debate.
The government is downplaying the significance of the constitutional change saying “The number of presidential terms is not a democracy issue. If the president is elected once, twice, or three times, it’s not a democracy issue, but a legislative issue.” However, non-government groups are concerned that such a move may lead the country, with already a weak democratic record, to monarchy-style governance given its already entrenched clan-based system. Some groups are cautioning that this constitutional change is against the very principles of the republic and are calling the people to vote against the motion or boycott the referendum altogether.
An Azeri law professor was quoted by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty saying that “Taking into account the circumstances of the society, the lack of political freedoms, the lack of a legitimate process of elections, and the lack of free media and a free market — if you take them altogether, removing the constitutional clause which limits the number of presidential terms would actually eventually lead to some sort of monarchy-like state.” RFL/RL is also quoting political analyst Ilgar Mammadov, a CIPE partner, saying that the people of Azerbaijan are not likely to speak up against the changes, despite the widespread public dissatisfaction with the constitutional amendments.
In this situation it is extremely important for us to continue our programs in Azerbaijan – programs that encourage citizens’ participation and voicing concerns with government actions. CIPE’s main partners in Azerbaijan – the business community – will continue to work to translate the democratic principles of participation and voice into the electoral process. Someone needs to keep pushing for democratic openings and prevent Azerbaijan from further falling into an authoritarian abyss.
Published Date: March 17, 2009