Summer is the silly season of politics, in the world’s capitals the big fish are leaving town for their summer vacations and the vacuum of debate and dialogue gets filled with less serious issues, which none the less can become fodder for discussion in the media and at the summer resorts where the elites hang their hats. Moscow is not immune to the political silly season, Russians like long summer vacations, and it’s hard to get any work done in late July and August. Like Paris, the town empties out with ordinary folks headed to their dachas and the wealthy to the south of France.
So what are the topics of interest this silly season? In from the fringe of the debate comes a surprising contender, it appears that democracy, not the “sovereign” kind that Vladimir Putin and his colleagues have developed over the last years, but the kind where political parties, rule of law, and pluralism exist is getting a hearing. What’s interesting about this year’s debate on the nature of Russian democracy is not what is being said, but who is saying it. It’s not coming from the traditional Russian liberal political community which has been effectively side-lined over the last few years, Yabloko, Russia’s version of the libertarian party has collapsed under its own tired leadership and credibility problems stemming from the politically unpopular reforms of the mid-90’s. This time the call for pluralism is coming from a more surprising source, the senior ranks of Russia’s private business elites who are linked to the Medvedev administration, and it would appear the President himself may be encouraging this debate.
Politkon.ru recently reported on a roundtable on Russian democracy sponsored by Moscow’s newly influential think tank, the “Institute for Contemporary Development” (ICD) where some pretty revolutionary ideas were floated. This is no ordinary gathering of wonks, Dmitry Medvedev himself presides as the organization’s Chair of the Board of Trustees, on which Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina also enjoys a seat with several Presidential aides. With such notables backing its work ICD is shaping up to be a formidable force for generating reform policy in Russia. The Institute is headed by Igor Yurgens the former Vice President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, and through this enjoys links to the leadership of Russia’s private business community as well as through his position as First Vice President at Renaissance Capital a leading Russian investment house.
Back to the democracy debate, in preparation for this roundtable, ICD asked another notable Moscow think tank, Igor Bunin’s Center for Political Technologies (CPT) to undertake a survey of Russia’s “forward-leaning” strata of society, defined by the study as those most ready to embrace a “universal” model of democracy, in which pluralism seems to have a role. Not surprisingly the study revealed that the group felt that Russia could be ready to move itself from its current “manual control” of political governance (a euphemism for Putin’s “vertical power” approach to governance), to one in which multiple political parties can function, elections take place in a more competitive environment, and media enjoys greater freedom. Reports from Russia suggest that this thinking extends to the business elite, with hallway discussions at the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum also buzzing with talk of the need for pluralism and better governance, perhaps encouraged by members of the Presidential administration.
Of course it wouldn’t be the silly season if there wasn’t passionate debate, and the report was roundly slammed by several policy figures close to the Putin camp, and the text of the report has yet to appear on either the websites of ICD or CPT, suggesting that the report may have been “A Bridge Too Far” in the democracy dialogue. However, Yurgens continues to stir the democracy pot, he was recently quoted as saying that if the Medvedev was to move forward with a “freedom” agenda he could count on the support of business elites and the middle class.
The private sector in Russia has much to gain from improved levels of governance and democracy. Pluralism brings the necessary checks and balances to prevent corruption that currently zaps Russian competitiveness, and transparent and clear regulations give the business environment the rules and predictability they need to make effective decisions. Dmitry Medvedev seems to understand this and has taken steps to reduce government involvement in the lives of business people, and to improve Russia’s judicial system. Perhaps those around Medvedev are trying to convince him that democracy is the guarantor of these efforts.
Of course, there may be more politics to this debate than policy, over the years Vladimir Putin has shown himself a master of the political high wire, balancing factions within Russia’s security service with access to business opportunities and political influence. Perhaps ICD is being given this space to create a third-force within this power equation, and what we’re seeing here is yet another new faction in Putin’s “managed democracy”, one which will play well in western capitals while keeping the darker forces of Russian politics guessing.
Published Date: July 21, 2008