The theme in Latin America for 2006 was elections, elections, elections. What’s the overall outcome of those elections and what does it mean for the future?
Despite widespread fears of left-leaning, populist candidates winning presidencies, that in fact only happened in a few places. The strongest examples are Venezuela, with the reelection of Hugo Chavez, and Bolivia with Evo Morales. In Nicaragua, blast-from-the-past FSLN leader Daniel Ortega was elected once again and newcomer Rafael Correa won a surprising victory in Ecuador. However, for reasons that will be outlined below, it is unclear how much these so-called populists will actually drive leftward the economic policies of their countries. Elsewhere, big victories were made on the right with the election of Felipe Calderon in Mexico and Alvaro Uribe in Colombia, not to mention the victory of newly pro-business Alan Garcia in Peru.
It is a baffling exercise to try and identify consistent voting patterns across country lines in the region by simply looking at presidential election results. However, the recent Latinobarómetro polls feature in the Economist (subscription required), helps shed light on some consistent voter sentiments in the region. Interestingly, those polls show overall support for democracy going up in 2006 with 58% of respondents indicating that democracy was the best form of government, even though those polls register a big drop in support for democracy in Venezuela (left wing government) and in El Salvador (right wing government). Go figure.
The Economist claims that overall, Latin American voters have voiced their desire for the moderate center-left along with moderate, market-oriented economic reforms. This may well be true as represented by election results in Chile and Brazil, but, the most strongest and most consistent traits of these polls is the underlying weakness of institutions in the country and peoples’ lack of confidence in them. This becomes clearer when one looks beyond simple presidential elections. For example, Rafael Correa’s party in Ecuador presented no candidates for congressional elections because of the poor reputation of that institution in the public eye. Now he will aim to convene a constituent assembly to reform Congress or else face crafting a program with legislators entirely of opposition parties. Similarly, in Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega will face ample opposition in Congress and in fact is already reaching out to the business community and stating his support for free trade initiatives. Even Evo Morales has not entirely upset the apple cart of economic policy in Bolivia, though he may yet do so.
For 2007, this interplay between presidential and congressional politics will be something to watch closely as it will hold the key to what economic policies will actually be put forward in each country. The biggest challenge will be to find ways to integrate disaffected groups into the mainstream economy so that they benefit from economic policies rather than remain marginalized by it. That will be the only way for politicians to gain and hold on to popular support over the long term.
Published Date: January 03, 2007