The dictator of Turkmenistan, one of the world’s most isolated countries, died yesterday, spurring analysts to ponder what will happen next. The interim leadership has stated that it will maintain the course of Turkmenbashi’s policies, but it is difficult to accurately predict what the country will look like in a year. When the leader of a country shut off from the world dies suddenly with no clear successor, the outcomes can range from the installation of a regime much like the previous one to the adoption of democracy and a market economy.
Generally speaking, Turkmenbashi’s policies were ill-conceived and have impoverished the country, despite its large reserves of natural gas. He repressed civil society and allowed no space for political opposition. In addition, he altered the educational system, requiring schools to devote most of their class time to studying a bible-like book written by Turkmenbashi himself, to the detriment of a curriculum that would provide young people with the skills and knowledge to succeed in the workplace and become part of the global economy.
The real question is: Will democracy succeed in Turkmenistan if the political system liberalizes? What will happen if elections are held? What will happen when a country that has never experienced anything remotely resembling democracy suddenly needs citizens to participate in the policymaking process, hold their elected officials accountable, and actively strive to eliminate corruption in the public and private spheres?
There are indications that some Turkmen citizens are prepared to take on the challenge. One CIPE partner formed to study legislation affecting business and provide recommendations to the Parliament on how to reform those laws to improve the business climate. The recommendations were developed through interaction with businesspeople, including roundtables and surveys. Just bringing businesspeople together to discuss the issues affecting them is an accomplishment in Turkmenistan. However, their efforts had a real impact as well. CIPE Program Officer for Central and South Western Asia Kipp Efinger reports that CIPE’s Turkmenistani partner was able to voice the needs of businesspeople, while members of Parliament seem to have taken these needs into consideration when drafting recent tax regulations.
Thus, despite the closed political and economic space that existed under Turkmenbashi, there are reformers in the country willing to get involved, advocate for their needs, and demonstrate that civil society understands its role as an agent of change. Hopefully, others in Turkmenistan will look to such positive examples of the impact that ordinary people can have when they identify concrete problems, unite to bring these issues to the attention of policymakers, and persevere until their needs are heard.
Published Date: December 22, 2006