On Sunday, the “last dictator” in Europe was reelected with an astounding 83% of the vote. It came as no surprise to anyone that Alyaksandr Lukashenka won, or that he won by such a majority. Of course, the election was fraudulent, the opposition leaders were harassed and jailed, and pre-election rallies were shut down by the police, sometimes violently.
Parallels have been draw between pre-Orange Revolution Ukraine and Belarus; many speculated that a flawed election might galvanize Belarus’ young population to unite and demand reform. The would-be revolution had a symbol even before it began – denim.
However, it was not meant to be. Although a few committed supporters of the opposition are still camped out in October Square, the numbers have dwindled to negligible levels. Lukashenka feels so unthreatened that he hasn’t sent his police force to chase everyone home.
A few days before the election, The Economist printed an interesting article, “Waving the Denim,” that tied Belarus’ political situation with the state of its economy. Lukashenka is credited with performing the “Belarusian economic miracle,” which basically amounts to a still-functioning (albeit poorly) state-run economy. For this reason, he still has a strong base of support in the countryside – food and pensions are valued more highly than political and economic freedoms.
Unfortunately, this is becoming a trend in a growing number of countries. Bolivia recently elected a president who considers capitalism to be “the worst enemy of humanity.” In Russia, Vladimir Putin has been systematically depriving Russians of their political rights while giving the state greater control over the economy. However, these states must realize that political and economic reforms are painted with the same brush – weakening political freedoms will only prompt backsliding economic conditions, and vice versa. In that regard, stability is only transitory.
Returning to the issue at hand, in its years of independence, Belarus has avoided war and starvation and maintained a stable government. But, is it enough that Belarus hasn’t become a failed state? Unfortunately, many of Belarus’ citizens seem to think so. The Economist estimates that Lukashenka would have won even without tampering with the election results.
Published Date: March 23, 2006