According to a recent WPO poll, people around the world believe that China will eventually catch up with the world’s biggest economy:
Among the 15 countries asked about China’s future economic prospects in 13 the most common answer is that China will eventually catch up with the United States. This includes 60 percent of Americans as well as large numbers in Peru (76%), Israel (75%), France (69%), Iran (64%), and Russia (62%). Across all countries poll, on average 54 percent had this belief.
Interestingly,
The Chinese themselves are among the more skeptical countries. Only 50 percent say that their economy will catch up to the US economy. That is considerably less than the percentage of Americans who believe China’s economy will grow to be as large as theirs (60%).
The poll seems to mirror economists’ predictions, who suggest that not only China, but India as well, will surpass the U.S. by 2050. Yet, the projections of growth are often based on the belief that the course of market-oriented reforms in these countries will remain on track. As the gap between those who have access to benefits of growth and those who do not may spill over into social unrest, the resulting political and economic reversals may, potentially, threaten growth prospects. The issue of uneven growth has been recently addressed by India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his address to the Indian industrial business leaders.
As one UCLA professor suggests, in his review, of Manmohan Singh recent speech,
Wealth can trigger social and political unrest at the same time as it produces numbers over which economists and business men will salivate. The paradox of economic wealth is that it can impoverish societies by depriving them of legitimacy — the necessary social capital required for stability, continuity and progress.
Dr. Singh’s full speech can be viewed here. In it, he talks about creating “inclusive growth” by promoting ethical business behavior and addressing institutional deficiencies that prevent equal access to resources and the benefits of growth. It has been already called as one of the more profound critiques of capitalism by one of the more pro-market leaders in the world. Yet, reading it, Dr. Singh’s remarks do not come off as anti-capitalist – they are about ethical business practices and institutional development – both of which lie at the core of what a democratic market economy is all about.
Published Date: May 31, 2007