For decades, the Islamic Republic’s power structure has functioned as a hybrid of theocratic, civilian, and military institutions. But as sustained conflict places these structures under acute strain, a significant transformation is taking place: the locus of authority is quietly shifting from the clerics to the military-security establishment.
In a new analysis for the Quincy Institute, “Iran’s Next Transformation: How War Could Shift Power from Clerics to the Military,” CIPE Managing Director of Programs Abdulwahab Alkebsi challenges the binary narrative surrounding Iran’s future. Moving beyond the standard debate of “regime collapse” versus “regime survival,” Alkebsi outlines how wartime conditions may accelerate a gradual, internal reconfiguration of the state.
Abdu’s article explores how the military-security establishment — specifically the IRGC — could emerge as the dominant center of power. This potential shift has profound implications for the private sector, business integrity, and the long-term sustainability of democratic governance. For stakeholders committed to economic liberty and fair competition, understanding these structural changes is essential to assessing the future landscape of the Iranian economy.
Published Date: May 04, 2026