Argentine presidential elections are coming up on October 28. So far, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, wife of the outgoing President Néstor Kirchner, is a decisive front runner. She is widely expected to win, riding on her husband’s wave of popularity generated by Argentina’s recovery from the disastrous 2001-02 financial crisis (the economy has grown by 8 percent annually over the last three years). Although tarnished by several recent corruption scandals, his approval ratings still show more than 50 percent popular support.
Yet, Argentina is still far from achieving macroeconomic stabilization, let alone the level of economic reform necessary to prevent similar crises in the future. The fiscal surplus is shrinking due to loosely controlled government expenditure. But inflation in particular is the cause of worry. Independent economists currently estimate it at 15 percent, which is almost double the official rate (calculated based on the price-controlled goods). This makes Argentina’s inflation second worst in South America after Venezuela.
But it is not just the health of the Argentine economy that has increasingly been called into question. The ongoing shift in its political institutions has not escaped the attention of observers, either. According to the Global Integrity, mechanisms for combating corruption in Argentina remain weak despite the President’s declarations to the contrary earlier during his term. Corruption is fueled by the concentration of power, with Kirchner’s party, Frente Para la Victoria (the Front for Victory), controlling most of the counties and both houses of the Congress. This undermines the federal system through extensive patronage involving politically-driven distribution of the national budget to governors and mayors.
There is also the issue of the Kirchners’ close relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Recently, WSJ reports (subscription required), Argentine customs officials caught a Venezuelan businessman who tried to smuggle almost $800,000 in cash into the country. Investigative reporters discovered that this was no isolated incident and that instead the Kirchner government has a tacit policy of allowing well-connected Venezuelans to come and go freely to Buenos Aires with hardly any scrutiny of their baggage. Stirred public opinion now wants to know if the money was by chance meant to contribute to Mrs. Kirchner’s presidential campaign.
Given that Argentina limits presidents to two consecutive four-year terms, but allows them to run again four years after leaving the office, Chilean journalist Karin Ebensperger (Spanish) wonders about the deeper significance of the upcoming elections:
For many, what’s in the game is not just whether Cristina Fernández de Kirchner comes to power, but rather a difference between two models [of government]: republican with its institutions, or the eternal succession of the Kirchners.
Published Date: October 03, 2007