To many in Iran this was supposed to be an election of firsts: the first time candidates engaged in vigorous debates on television, the first time a candidate’s wife became such a dynamic voice in a campaign, and what many were hoping – the first time an incumbent President was elected out of office. During the two-week campaign season, there was a buzz and excitement about the elections not seen in years. The urban elite had grown disillusioned with Iranian politics after witnessing the limits of change under reformist President Mohammad Khatami, who ruled from 1997 until 2005. Voter malaise set in as they came to view the presidential elections as only a nominal change in leadership with power ultimately in the hands of the clerical establishment.
However, the widespread repercussions of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s populist, hard-line policies proved that, to a certain degree, elections do matter. With increased repression at home, a reeling economy, and an excessively confrontational stance on the world stage, many segments of Iranian society were ready for change. Their hopes were personified in Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was a veteran of the 1979 Revolution, but had stayed out of politics for the last 20 years. In the final days of the campaign, millions of Iranians took to the streets, many sporting green ribbons that became a symbol for Mousavi, and many declaring their determination to vote for the first time. It seemed odd that a bland technocrat such as Mousavi, who was Prime Minister from 1980 to 1989 and responsible for the purging of political dissidents, would become the voice for the reformist camp.
Yet it is precisely because of Mousavi’s competent management of the economy during the Iran-Iraq war and his ability to bridge the conservative-liberal divide through a return to the true principles of the Revolution, that he was seen as a viable candidate. With a surge of support among women, youth, and the urban middle class (groups that would normally stay home on election day but felt they had a large stake in this election) it looked like Mousavi had a real chance of defeating Ahmadinejad. The excitement led to record turnout of 85 percent, a factor that should have allowed for a Mousavi victory or at the very least for a second-round runoff. But like all things in Iran’s opaque political structure, the outcome proved to be unpredictable.
