Is Bolivia Becoming a Failed State?

The last few days in La Paz have been replete with demonstrations. Members of the Bolivian Workers Central (COB) have been blasting dynamite and taking over government ministries to force the government to pass a new pensions law that favors them. More demonstrations are scheduled in the coming days and the COB is threatening a “punishment vote” against President Morales in the upcoming revocatory referendum scheduled for August 10. These demonstrations are being repeated in cities around the country. Other groups are also demonstrating. For example, a union of handicapped citizens has blocked entry to an oil refinery causing gasoline shortages. They are also seeking government pension payments.

Meanwhile, the revocatory referendum is causing increasing political division between different ethnic, economic class and regional groups. If Morales is able to secure a substantial confidence vote and replace some of the regional prefects in opposition to him with his own candidates, then he will no doubt move to adopt his new constitution. Among other divisive measures, his new constitution would allow for some 35 ethnic-based autonomous “regions” to be established. However, a strong showing of support for the Morales government in the referendum is far from assured. If he loses the vote, which seems unlikely, it is far from clear who would succeed Morales as head of the government. The most likely outcome will be a modest win for Morales but also for some of the key opposition prefects and continuation of the status quo.

Most people I have spoken with here do not see an easy road ahead for Bolivia. Most of the major initiatives on the table, including the referendum and the autonomy movements in various regions, are all illegal under the current constitution. However, the constitutional court, which has only one member now, is not overseeing the legality of these processes. As a result, the government-controlled Electoral Commission is giving the green light for the referendum to take place and the regional autonomy movements are gathering strength.

The coming weeks will be crucial for discerning how far the country may sink into chaos. The newest economic report by Fundación Milenio paints a bleak picture of government spending outstripping income, inflation out of control rising from 17% per year, greater reliance on traditional exports mainly hydrocarbons but also decreasing production of those exports because of low levels of domestic and especially foreign investment. The government seems to be exercising little control over this steady decline of the economy and it seems that it will only be a matter of time before there are more uprisings against its policies. Neither is it reaching out to build bridges with the opposition. What happens if the Morales government is thrown out is anyone’s guess but a failed state seems easily one of the possibilities.

Published Date: August 01, 2008